Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2774 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:55	ELP 16:00	20%	3%	0.5%	66%
WN 2818 Southwest	MDW 18:00	ELP 20:10	27%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → ELP 09:40WN 1201	5h 25m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	2h 10m Denver	DEN 10:30 → ELP 12:22WN 3993	6h 32m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:10 → LAX 07:25WN 4637	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 08:40 → ELP 11:46WN 1160	7h 36m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → ELP 10:18WN 2239	5h 58m	92%	81%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → DAL 09:00WN 3796	3h 22m Dallas	DAL 12:22 → ELP 13:10WN 4783	7h 30m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:55 → LAS 18:45WN 2797	3h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 21:55 → ELP 00:45 +1WN 4340	8h 50m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:00 → DAL 13:15WN 35	3h 13m Dallas	DAL 16:28 → ELP 17:20WN 225	7h 20m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	3h 00m Phoenix	PHX 11:45 → ELP 14:08WN 294	7h 58m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON