Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4409 MDW 07:50 → FLL 11:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 544 MDW 19:40 → FLL 23:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4409 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:50	FLL 11:55	10%	2%	0.1%	89%
WN 1411 Southwest	MDW 08:50	FLL 12:50	10%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 1487 Southwest	MDW 12:50	FLL 16:50	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2777 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:35	FLL 23:35	18%	4%	0.5%	45%
WN 4899 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 15:25	FLL 19:25	19%	4%	0.5%	51%
WN 544 Southwest	MDW 19:40	FLL 23:40	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON