Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2888 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2888 MDW 07:10 → HOU 09:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 954 MDW 21:40 → HOU 00:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2888 Southwest	MDW 07:10	HOU 09:56	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2889 Southwest	MDW 09:40	HOU 12:26	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2783 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	HOU 12:50	15%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 799 Southwest	MDW 11:50	HOU 14:36	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2785 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:40	HOU 20:15	22%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 1124 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 15:00	HOU 17:35	22%	4%	0.6%	55%
WN 1431 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:15	HOU 21:50	23%	5%	0.6%	51%
WN 2891 Southwest	MDW 15:45	HOU 18:32	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 709 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:50	HOU 14:25	24%	3%	0.6%	50%
WN 954 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	HOU 00:15	24%	5%	0.6%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON