Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2898 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2898 MDW 05:10 → LAS 06:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1277 MDW 15:50 → LAS 17:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2898 Southwest	MDW 05:10	LAS 06:58	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1182 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 06:30	LAS 08:20	5%	1%	0.2%	91%
WN 1541 Southwest	MDW 07:10	LAS 08:58	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 347 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:30	LAS 09:20	7%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 2794 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:10	LAS 11:00	10%	2%	0.2%	81%
WN 2900 Southwest	MDW 09:45	LAS 11:32	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 1782 Southwest	MDW 11:50	LAS 13:36	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 596 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:15	LAS 22:05	16%	3%	0.5%	32%
WN 2795 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:40	LAS 15:35	18%	3%	0.5%	71%
WN 2797 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:55	LAS 18:45	19%	3%	0.5%	54%
WN 2901 Southwest	MDW 20:24	LAS 22:09	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1277 Southwest	MDW 15:50	LAS 17:35	20%	3%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	50m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	5h 20m	86%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON