tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3035 Southwest MDW 12:00 LGB 14:38 15% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 4413 Southwest Flight history → MDW 13:15 LGB 15:30 20% 3% 0.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989 1h 58m Denver DEN 08:48 → LGB 10:13WN 1655 6h 58m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → LGB 09:55WN 165 6h 35m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 11:40 → LGB 12:55WN 2505 7h 45m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182 1h 33m Las Vegas LAS 09:53 → LGB 11:05WN 4375 6h 35m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366 1h 50m Oakland OAK 14:30 → LGB 15:55WN 2951 7h 45m 97% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347 2h 15m Las Vegas LAS 11:35 → LGB 12:45WN 2260 7h 15m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094 3h 35m Sacramento SMF 16:15 → LGB 17:40WN 2485 9h 20m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 1h 50m Nashville BNA 14:35 → LGB 16:50WN 1427 7h 30m 96% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON