Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2912 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2912 MDW 07:50 → MCI 09:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4407 MDW 14:10 → MCI 15:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2912 Southwest	MDW 07:50	MCI 09:22	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2808 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:00	MCI 09:30	8%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 2913 Southwest	MDW 09:50	MCI 11:23	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:20	MCI 11:45	12%	2%	0.5%	73%
WN 2914 Southwest	MDW 11:50	MCI 13:22	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2810 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:05	MCI 13:30	15%	2%	0.5%	69%
WN 1482 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:30	MCI 22:05	15%	4%	0.5%	48%
WN 2814 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:45	MCI 23:20	15%	4%	0.6%	58%
WN 2915 Southwest	MDW 14:25	MCI 15:56	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2916 Southwest	MDW 15:50	MCI 17:22	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2812 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:05	MCI 17:30	18%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 4407 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:10	MCI 15:35	18%	3%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON