Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:41 pm at Chicago); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4506 at 22:20, 37%.

Nonstops today


WN 4506 Southwest	MDW 22:20	MEM 00:03	37%	8%	0.3%	no record
WN 4100 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:25	MEM 23:10	40%	8%	0.2%	45%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → MEM 23:29DL 8930	6h 19m	96%	66%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073	2h 15m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → MEM 23:33WN 650	4h 53m	92%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON