Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:44 am at Chicago); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4250 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:50	MHT 22:00	21%	4%	0.1%	50%
WN 4700 Southwest	MDW 18:45	MHT 21:55	22%	4%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Manchester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 16:50 → MHT 18:25WN 4736	5h 30m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → MHT 00:10 +1WN 1668	5h 50m	95%	72%
Southwest Details →	MDW 13:40 → MCO 17:30WN 2819	2h 35m Orlando	MCO 20:05 → MHT 23:01WN 2753	8h 21m	98%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON