Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2464 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:00	MIA 12:00	7%	2%	0.5%	66%
WN 2119 Southwest	MDW 08:05	MIA 12:08	7%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 07:45 → CMH 10:05WN 4093	3h 45m Columbus	CMH 13:50 → MIA 16:25WN 114	7h 40m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:10 → MCO 08:40WN 2815	2h 00m Orlando	MCO 10:40 → MIA 11:47WN 449	5h 37m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:15 → BNA 08:40WN 2959	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → MIA 14:50WN 581	6h 35m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 46m	94%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:40 → DAL 09:00WN 3796	2h 30m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → MIA 15:20WN 1361	7h 40m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 45m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:09 → MIA 19:25DL 1631	7h 20m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON