Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 447 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 447 MDW 07:38 → MSP 09:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4085 MDW 21:50 → MSP 23:20 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 447 Southwest	MDW 07:38	MSP 09:08	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2066 Southwest	MDW 09:55	MSP 11:25	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest	MDW 14:05	MSP 15:35	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4643 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:05	MSP 18:35	16%	3%	0.5%	65%
WN 4085 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:50	MSP 23:20	18%	4%	0.5%	56%
DL 5469 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 09:54	MSP 11:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 13:49	MSP 15:33	32%	19%	3.6%	68%
DL 4713 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 19:06	MSP 20:51	38%	25%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON