Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1587 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1587 MDW 08:40 → MSY 11:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 446 MDW 16:15 → MSY 18:38 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1587 Southwest	MDW 08:40	MSY 11:02	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2834 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:50	MSY 11:05	11%	2%	0.8%	79%
WN 3743 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:25	MSY 16:40	20%	4%	0.7%	30%
WN 2836 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	MSY 23:55	22%	5%	0.7%	66%
WN 446 Southwest	MDW 16:15	MSY 18:38	24%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON