Today: WN 1695 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet today WN 1695 MDW 08:10 → MYR 11:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 2089 MDW 16:20 → MYR 19:27 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1695 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:10	MYR 11:20	11%	2%	0.4%	97%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:45	MYR 22:50	19%	6%	0.6%	33%
WN 2089 Southwest	MDW 16:20	MYR 19:27	29%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON