Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4280 MDW 10:05 → OAK 12:38 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4042 MDW 21:40 → OAK 00:15 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4280 Southwest	MDW 10:05	OAK 12:38	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3366 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	OAK 12:40	15%	3%	0.6%	74%
WN 4042 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:40	OAK 00:15	24%	4%	0.7%	48%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → OAK 09:25WN 1240	6h 10m	95%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846	1h 10m Ontario	ONT 15:00 → OAK 16:28WN 2947	6h 43m	89%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	55m Phoenix	PHX 09:40 → OAK 11:35WN 2680	6h 25m	87%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON