Today: WN 4114 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet today WN 4114 MDW 10:10 → OKC 12:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3881 MDW 21:30 → OKC 23:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4114 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	OKC 12:15	11%	1%	0.2%	92%
WN 2941 Southwest	MDW 09:45	OKC 11:58	11%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3554 Southwest	MDW 22:25	OKC 00:35	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3881 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:30	OKC 23:35	22%	4%	0.6%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON