Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4412 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4412 MDW 09:40 → OMA 11:14 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2844 MDW 18:25 → OMA 19:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4412 Southwest	MDW 09:40	OMA 11:14	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4613 Southwest	MDW 14:10	OMA 15:44	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2945 Southwest	MDW 15:50	OMA 17:25	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 435 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:10	OMA 15:40	16%	3%	0.5%	73%
WN 2845 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:25	OMA 23:00	18%	3%	0.5%	62%
WN 2844 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:25	OMA 19:50	26%	4%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON