Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Nonstops that day


WN 2846 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:45	ONT 13:50	15%	3%	0.5%	55%
WN 3508 Southwest	MDW 11:55	ONT 14:08	16%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 40m Denver	DEN 08:30 → ONT 09:54WN 3001	6h 39m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MDW 07:10 → PHX 08:45WN 2520	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431	6h 10m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	56m Phoenix	PHX 07:51 → ONT 09:14WN 1919	5h 54m	95%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	2h 35m Denver	DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080	7h 20m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	57m Las Vegas	LAS 09:17 → ONT 10:27WN 276	5h 57m	94%	85%
Southwest Details →	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	1h 30m Denver	DEN 13:00 → ONT 14:26WN 2947	6h 31m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	2h 35m Oakland	OAK 15:15 → ONT 16:35WN 381	8h 25m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094	1h 20m Sacramento	SMF 14:00 → ONT 15:20WN 3807	7h 00m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON