Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:38 pm at Chicago); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4089 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 19:00	ORF 22:05	28%	4%	0.2%	36%
WN 4071 Southwest	MDW 18:45	ORF 21:59	31%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 21:54 → ORF 23:44DL 2338	5h 34m	89%	64%
Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 25m Baltimore	BWI 22:40 → ORF 23:45WN 2341	5h 25m	94%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON