Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 4765 MDW 16:40 → PDX 19:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time Riskiest WN 2950 MDW 21:45 → PDX 00:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4765 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:40	PDX 19:00	24%	6%	0.1%	33%
WN 2852 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:35	PDX 23:55	31%	6%	0.2%	45%
WN 2950 Southwest	MDW 21:45	PDX 00:02	31%	5%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON