Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 184 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 184 MDW 05:40 → PHX 07:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2959 MDW 18:16 → PHX 19:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 184 Southwest	MDW 05:40	PHX 07:22	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2858 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:20	PHX 06:55	7%	1%	0.2%	88%
WN 2520 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:10	PHX 08:45	11%	2%	0.3%	88%
WN 725 Southwest	MDW 09:15	PHX 10:55	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3016 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 08:40	PHX 10:20	14%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 2003 Southwest	MDW 11:20	PHX 12:59	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4189 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:20	PHX 12:55	20%	3%	0.6%	66%
WN 2360 Southwest	MDW 14:40	PHX 16:18	23%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2863 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:35	PHX 22:15	24%	5%	0.6%	48%
WN 1783 Southwest	MDW 16:06	PHX 17:44	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2960 Southwest	MDW 19:15	PHX 20:52	27%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2861 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 16:35	PHX 18:15	28%	5%	0.6%	46%
WN 2862 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:40	PHX 20:20	30%	5%	0.6%	43%
WN 2959 Southwest	MDW 18:16	PHX 19:53	31%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 16:05 → MCI 17:30WN 2812	1h 00m Kansas City	MCI 18:30 → PHX 19:15WN 2580	5h 10m	82%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON