Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:01 am at Chicago)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4272 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:55	PWM 22:15	28%	6%	0.2%	53%
WN 2398 Southwest	MDW 18:40	PWM 21:57	29%	6%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 17:20 → BWI 20:15WN 4616	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → PWM 00:03 +1WN 4571	5h 43m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → PWM 17:54DL 488	5h 49m	77%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON