Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1444 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1444 MDW 08:00 → RDU 11:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4221 MDW 18:55 → RDU 21:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1444 Southwest	MDW 08:00	RDU 11:02	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 852 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 07:40	RDU 10:35	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 4462 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:20	RDU 16:15	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
WN 2971 Southwest	MDW 15:40	RDU 18:42	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4221 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:55	RDU 21:50	22%	4%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON