tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:12 am at Chicago)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347 1h 31m Las Vegas LAS 10:51 → RNO 12:17WN 579 6h 47m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 3h 50m Burbank BUR 16:15 → RNO 17:41WN 1233 9h 36m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 16:55 → LAS 18:45WN 2797 3h 11m Las Vegas LAS 21:56 → RNO 23:23WN 2391 8h 28m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 18:40 → PHX 20:20WN 2862 2h 11m Phoenix PHX 22:31 → RNO 00:29 +1WN 418 7h 49m 95% 76%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016 3h 30m Phoenix PHX 13:50 → RNO 15:45WN 3475 9h 05m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 13:40 → LAS 15:35WN 2795 2h 10m Las Vegas LAS 17:45 → RNO 19:12WN 4610 7h 32m 98% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 09:10 → LAS 11:00WN 2794 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 12:35 → RNO 14:05WN 652 6h 55m 98% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727 1h 45m Austin AUS 14:00 → RNO 15:25WN 4078 7h 45m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MDW 18:00 → LAX 20:20WN 188 1h 05m Los Angeles LAX 21:25 → RNO 22:55WN 1161 6h 55m 66% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON