Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2246 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2246 MDW 08:00 → ROC 10:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2220 MDW 18:50 → ROC 21:33 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2246 Southwest	MDW 08:00	ROC 10:43	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2877 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:20	ROC 15:55	20%	3%	0.5%	59%
WN 2220 Southwest	MDW 18:50	ROC 21:33	27%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON