tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:17 am at Chicago); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: WN 1546 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet today WN 1546 MDW 10:05 → SFO 12:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 12% on time Riskiest WN 4327 MDW 21:25 → SFO 23:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
WN 1546 Southwest Flight history → MDW 10:05 SFO 12:35 17% 4% 0.1% 12%
WN 4367 Southwest MDW 09:45 SFO 12:12 21% 3% 0.1% no record
WN 2893 Southwest Flight history → MDW 21:30 SFO 00:15 27% 8% 0.7% 51%
WN 4327 Southwest MDW 21:25 SFO 23:50 33% 8% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989 55m Denver DEN 07:45 → SFO 09:25WN 2386 6h 10m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858 55m Phoenix PHX 07:50 → SFO 09:57WN 3471 6h 37m 90% 74%
SouthwestDetails → MDW 09:10 → LAS 11:00WN 2794 55m Las Vegas LAS 11:55 → SFO 13:34WN 4616 6h 24m 84% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON