Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2990 MDW 09:50 → SJC 12:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2659 MDW 20:50 → SJC 23:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2990 Southwest	MDW 09:50	SJC 12:13	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3752 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	SJC 12:30	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
WN 2659 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:50	SJC 23:30	16%	5%	0.7%	38%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → SJC 09:25WN 494	6h 10m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:30 → SJC 11:00WN 2384	6h 10m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SJC 09:45WN 1387	6h 25m	89%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON