Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2951 MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2660 MDW 22:05 → SLC 00:35 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2951 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:00	SLC 12:25	10%	2%	0.5%	80%
WN 4370 Southwest	MDW 09:55	SLC 12:09	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2660 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 22:05	SLC 00:35	18%	6%	0.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON