Today: WN 2094 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet today WN 2094 MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest WN 2897 MDW 18:55 → SMF 21:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2094 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:20	SMF 12:40	16%	3%	0.1%	70%
WN 3222 Southwest	MDW 09:50	SMF 12:08	17%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 4121 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:55	SMF 00:25	26%	5%	0.6%	42%
WN 2994 Southwest	MDW 22:30	SMF 00:48	27%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2897 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:55	SMF 21:20	28%	5%	0.5%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 05m Denver	DEN 07:55 → SMF 09:30WN 1738	6h 15m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	57m Las Vegas	LAS 09:17 → SMF 10:54WN 1741	6h 24m	94%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → SMF 09:45WN 2885	6h 25m	82%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON