Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:42 am at Chicago)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	1h 40m Denver	DEN 08:30 → SNA 09:57WN 1849	6h 42m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094	3h 10m Sacramento	SMF 15:50 → SNA 17:29WN 3981	9h 09m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	2h 32m San Jose	SJC 15:02 → SNA 16:31WN 3400	8h 26m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	2h 10m Phoenix	PHX 09:05 → SNA 10:30WN 3322	7h 10m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366	3h 40m Oakland	OAK 16:20 → SNA 17:56WN 3209	9h 46m	98%	79%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:50 → DEN 08:20WN 2765	1h 40m Denver	DEN 10:00 → SNA 11:24WN 2727	6h 34m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	MDW 06:30 → LAS 08:20WN 1182	50m Las Vegas	LAS 09:10 → SNA 10:20WN 187	5h 50m	89%	76%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → DEN 16:10WN 2768	2h 50m Denver	DEN 19:00 → SNA 20:30WN 1748	8h 00m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752	52m San Jose	SJC 13:22 → SNA 14:51WN 971	6h 46m	69%	53%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:00 → DEN 19:45WN 1497	49m Denver	DEN 20:34 → SNA 21:59WN 138	5h 59m	69%	51%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:40 → PHX 20:20WN 2862	50m Phoenix	PHX 21:10 → SNA 22:25WN 4107	5h 45m	62%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON