Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3002 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3002 MDW 05:05 → TPA 08:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4520 MDW 17:15 → TPA 20:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3002 Southwest	MDW 05:05	TPA 08:46	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2215 Southwest	MDW 08:35	TPA 12:14	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2907 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 09:15	TPA 12:50	13%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 2910 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:10	TPA 23:50	21%	5%	0.9%	54%
WN 980 Southwest	MDW 13:25	TPA 17:06	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 4546 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 14:25	TPA 18:05	25%	6%	1.0%	61%
WN 4520 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:15	TPA 20:50	25%	6%	0.9%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON