Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:16 pm at Chicago); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 301 at 21:30, 30%.

Nonstops today


WN 301 Southwest	MDW 21:30	TUL 23:26	30%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	1h 51m Dallas	DAL 16:26 → TUL 17:45WN 4248	5h 25m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 09m	92%	70%
Southwest Details →	MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073	2h 05m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → TUL 00:02 +1WN 746	5h 22m	94%	69%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:20 → DAL 18:35WN 2758	3h 20m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:14WN 1477	6h 54m	98%	66%
Southwest Details →	MDW 14:30 → DEN 16:10WN 2768	3h 20m Denver	DEN 19:30 → TUL 22:14WN 2291	7h 44m	97%	61%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837	5h 23m	84%	61%
Southwest Details →	MDW 13:40 → LAS 15:35WN 2795	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 17:40 → TUL 22:20WN 2188	8h 40m	97%	52%
Southwest Details →	MDW 16:55 → LAS 18:45WN 2797	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 20:35 → TUL 01:15 +1WN 4339	8h 20m	93%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON