Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 733 MEM 15:11 → ATL 17:41 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1681 MEM 18:03 → ATL 20:33 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 733 Delta	MEM 15:11	ATL 17:41	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	MEM 16:21	ATL 18:51	18%	3%	0.5%	80%
DL 2939 Delta Flight history →	MEM 19:05	ATL 21:38	23%	4%	0.7%	73%
DL 552 Delta Flight history →	MEM 17:52	ATL 20:29	24%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	MEM 18:03	ATL 20:33	25%	4%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON