tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:52 pm at Memphis); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: American via O'Hare, leaving 14:39, 59% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MEM 14:39 → ORD 16:43AA 3675 · flown by Envoy 2h 33m Chicago ORD 19:16 → AUS 22:00AA 1715 7h 21m 94% 59%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 17:00 → BNA 18:00WN 410 3h 00m Nashville BNA 21:00 → AUS 23:23WN 2372 6h 23m 97% 58%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 14:30 → DAL 15:50WN 4127 3h 45m Dallas DAL 19:35 → AUS 20:45WN 187 6h 15m 98% 57%
UnitedDetails → MEM 15:25 → DEN 17:09UA 498 1h 30m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 6h 32m 92% 56%
UnitedDetails → MEM 15:23 → IAH 17:25UA 5798 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 6h 02m 96% 55%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40WN 4024 2h 20m Denver DEN 21:00 → AUS 00:13 +1WN 2695 7h 03m 95% 53%
AmericanDetails → MEM 17:19 → DFW 19:09AA 3678 · flown by Envoy 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588 6h 32m 95% 53%
AmericanDetails → MEM 18:06 → ORD 20:23AA 4457 · flown by Republic 53m Chicago ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935 5h 53m 80% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 14:46 → DFW 16:35AA 3676 · flown by Envoy 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:23 → AUS 18:30AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 3h 44m 64% 45%
AmericanDetails → MEM 18:30 → DFW 20:22AA 3677 · flown by Envoy 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972 4h 09m 68% 40%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 17:00 → BNA 18:00WN 410 46m Nashville BNA 18:46 → AUS 21:10WN 165 4h 10m 53% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON