Today: WN 3012 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet today WN 3012 MEM 08:20 → BNA 09:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 410 MEM 17:00 → BNA 18:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3012 Southwest	MEM 08:20	BNA 09:28	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2913 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 08:25	BNA 09:20	10%	1%	0.1%	89%
WN 820 Southwest	MEM 17:10	BNA 18:18	20%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 410 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 17:00	BNA 18:00	23%	6%	0.5%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON