Today: AA 978 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet today AA 978 MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5357 MEM 16:23 → CLT 19:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 978 American Flight history →	MEM 05:00	CLT 07:46	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
AA 1846 American Flight history →	MEM 07:10	CLT 09:58	10%	4%	0.5%	88%
AA 2110 American Flight history →	MEM 11:02	CLT 13:50	13%	4%	0.4%	92%
AA 1354 American Flight history →	MEM 10:47	CLT 13:34	13%	4%	0.5%	93%
OH 5093 PSA	MEM 12:50	CLT 15:38	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1790 American Flight history →	MEM 14:33	CLT 17:20	22%	4%	0.5%	95%worse than usual
AA 5269 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 18:49	CLT 21:50	22%	9%	0.8%	67%
AA 2116 American Flight history →	MEM 14:56	CLT 17:48	25%	5%	0.4%	62%
OH 5055 PSA	MEM 18:39	CLT 21:26	25%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 5357 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 16:23	CLT 19:24	26%	7%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON