Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:20 pm at Memphis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4127 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 14:30	DAL 15:50	22%	4%	0.3%	54%
WN 2658 Southwest	MEM 17:15	DAL 18:51	25%	5%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MEM 16:10 → MDW 17:45WN 3345	3h 35m Chicago	MDW 21:20 → DAL 23:41WN 2868	7h 31m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	MEM 14:35 → BWI 17:45WN 4698	3h 28m Baltimore	BWI 21:13 → DAL 23:41WN 991	9h 06m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:00 → BNA 18:00WN 410	3h 35m Nashville	BNA 21:35 → DAL 23:36WN 533	6h 36m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 04m	95%	66%
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40WN 4024	1h 31m Denver	DEN 20:11 → DAL 23:11WN 1579	6h 01m	87%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MEM 17:52 → ATL 20:29DL 552	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	4h 33m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON