Today: WN 2860 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet today WN 2860 MEM 06:10 → DEN 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4024 MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2860 Southwest	MEM 06:10	DEN 07:55	4%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 579 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 09:40	DEN 11:05	9%	2%	0.2%	86%
UA 526 United	MEM 08:44	DEN 10:31	9%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 472 United Flight history →	MEM 08:51	DEN 10:35	11%	4%	0.2%	88%
UA 498 United Flight history →	MEM 15:25	DEN 17:09	17%	4%	0.2%	72%
UA 1347 United	MEM 16:10	DEN 17:39	18%	6%	0.2%	no record
F9 4625 Frontier Flight history →	MEM 19:48	DEN 21:41	19%	8%	0.8%	78%
WN 3016 Southwest	MEM 14:50	DEN 16:35	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4024 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 17:10	DEN 18:40	26%	5%	0.2%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON