tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1884 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1884 MEM 05:51 → DFW 07:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1935 MEM 12:03 → DFW 13:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1884 American Flight history → MEM 05:51 DFW 07:40 11% 4% 3.2% 92%
AA 1940 American Flight history → MEM 05:45 DFW 07:34 11% 4% 2.1% 89%
AA 1825 American Flight history → MEM 07:13 DFW 09:14 15% 5% 3.0% 85%
AA 3020 American MEM 09:22 DFW 11:01 20% 5% 2.3% no record
AA 3678 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MEM 17:19 DFW 19:09 20% 6% 0.7% 68%
AA 2114 American Flight history → MEM 09:29 DFW 11:14 22% 6% 1.8% 76%
AA 3677 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MEM 18:30 DFW 20:22 22% 6% 0.7% 63%
AA 3676 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MEM 14:46 DFW 16:35 22% 5% 0.7% 77%
AA 3888 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MEM 14:46 DFW 16:29 22% 5% 0.7% 75%
AA 1710 American MEM 11:59 DFW 13:48 25% 7% 2.7% no record
AA 1935 American Flight history → MEM 12:03 DFW 13:45 28% 9% 1.9% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON