Today: DL 2370 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet today DL 2370 MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 4007 MEM 17:42 → DTW 20:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2370 Delta Flight history →	MEM 06:32	DTW 09:27	5%	3%	0.2%	89%
DL 3137 Delta Flight history →	MEM 10:29	DTW 13:22	9%	4%	0.2%	81%
DL 1627 Delta	MEM 10:30	DTW 13:24	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 17:42	DTW 20:41	19%	10%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON