Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:26 pm at Memphis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3699 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 16:07	EWR 19:59	13%	6%	0.6%	76%
YX 3613 Republic	MEM 16:12	EWR 19:48	17%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	7h 37m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MEM 17:42 → DTW 20:41DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	59m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609	4h 43m	60%	47%
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	5h 18m	43%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON