Today: WN 2925 at 12:40 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet today WN 2925 MEM 12:40 → HOU 14:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2069 MEM 20:15 → HOU 21:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2925 Southwest	MEM 12:40	HOU 14:27	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 2824 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 12:15	HOU 13:50	24%	4%	0.3%	55%
WN 2339 Southwest	MEM 20:10	HOU 21:57	25%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 2069 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 20:15	HOU 21:55	28%	6%	0.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON