Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 22%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3019 at 06:50, 5%.

Safest bet today WN 3019 MEM 06:50 → MCO 09:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3047 MEM 18:05 → MCO 21:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 3019 Southwest	MEM 06:50	MCO 09:55	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1786 Southwest	MEM 12:45	MCO 15:50	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3047 Southwest	MEM 18:05	MCO 21:10	37%	13%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON