Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:38 pm at Memphis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2750 Southwest	MEM 16:10	MDW 17:54	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3345 Southwest Flight history →	MEM 16:10	MDW 17:45	24%	5%	0.2%	61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 54m	95%	73%
Southwest Details →	MEM 14:35 → BWI 17:45WN 4698	3h 11m Baltimore	BWI 20:56 → MDW 22:12WN 1073	7h 37m	98%	72%
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:00 → BNA 18:00WN 410	1h 55m Nashville	BNA 19:55 → MDW 21:39WN 647	4h 39m	92%	71%
Southwest Details →	MEM 14:30 → DAL 15:50WN 4127	3h 25m Dallas	DAL 19:15 → MDW 21:34WN 1415	7h 04m	97%	71%
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40WN 4024	2h 15m Denver	DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683	7h 11m	94%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MEM 17:52 → ATL 20:29DL 552	46m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 23m	68%	52%
Southwest Details →	MEM 14:30 → DAL 15:50WN 4127	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 16:50 → MDW 19:05WN 36	4h 35m	75%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON