Today: YX 4650 at 17:52 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–37%.

Safest bet today YX 4650 MEM 17:52 → ORD 19:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5336 MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4650 Republic	MEM 17:52	ORD 19:59	18%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 4457 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 18:06	ORD 20:23	21%	11%	0.4%	54%
UA 5336 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MEM 18:35	ORD 20:40	37%	18%	0.8%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON