Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:46 pm at Memphis); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: AA 5266 at 17:38, 29%.

Nonstops today


AA 5266 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 17:38	PHL 21:10	29%	10%	2.2%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 18:03 → ATL 20:33DL 1681	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 56m	92%	68%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	5h 06m	90%	67%
American Details →	MEM 18:06 → ORD 20:23AA 4457 · flown by Republic	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490	5h 53m	86%	63%
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:00 → BNA 18:00WN 410	3h 20m Nashville	BNA 21:20 → PHL 00:25 +1WN 634	6h 25m	100%	61%
American Details →	MEM 16:23 → CLT 19:24AA 5357 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	6h 59m	96%	57%
American Details →	MEM 15:02 → DFW 16:08AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	6h 55m	88%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MEM 18:35 → ORD 20:40UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	5h 22m	59%	48%
Delta Details →	MEM 17:42 → DTW 20:41DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	54m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	4h 34m	59%	47%
Southwest Details →	MEM 17:10 → DEN 18:40WN 4024	55m Denver	DEN 19:35 → PHL 01:12 +1WN 1792	7h 02m	51%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON