tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 652 Southwest MEM 09:50 PHX 11:14 10% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 3879 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MEM 08:00 PHX 09:28 12% 4% 0.6% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 8h 46m 97% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MEM 05:15 → MDW 06:50WN 2916 2h 25m Chicago MDW 09:15 → PHX 10:55WN 725 7h 40m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 3h 20m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 18m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 6h 57m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:00 → CLT 07:46AA 978 3h 51m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 9h 56m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MEM 10:29 → DTW 13:22DL 3137 3h 28m Detroit DTW 16:50 → PHX 17:55DL 1135 9h 26m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MEM 05:34 → MIA 09:03AA 1340 1h 46m Miami MIA 10:49 → PHX 12:35AA 3172 9h 01m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → MEM 07:10 → CLT 09:59AA 1846 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 13:23 → PHX 14:59AA 1044 9h 49m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 14:33 → CLT 17:21AA 1790 53m Charlotte CLT 18:14 → PHX 19:48AA 1274 7h 15m 67% 47%
AmericanDetails → MEM 16:23 → CLT 19:24AA 5357 · flown by PSA 56m Charlotte CLT 20:20 → PHX 21:42AA 1617 7h 19m 67% 46%
UnitedDetails → MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest 49m Chicago ORD 17:18 → PHX 19:04UA 2053 6h 42m 60% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON