Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3322 MFR 06:08 → LAX 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3002 MFR 16:36 → LAX 18:41 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3322 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 06:08	LAX 08:18	6%	3%	0.2%	94%
OO 3126 SkyWest	MFR 07:02	LAX 09:09	9%	4%	0.2%	no record
OO 3002 SkyWest	MFR 16:36	LAX 18:41	13%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 2329 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 16:34	LAX 18:35	21%	10%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON