Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3300 MFR 12:30 → PDX 13:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3434 MFR 14:52 → PDX 16:09 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 12:30	PDX 13:34	11%	4%	0.4%	90%
OO 3034 SkyWest	MFR 12:42	PDX 13:59	11%	4%	0.4%	no record
OO 3434 SkyWest	MFR 14:52	PDX 16:09	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 2107 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 19:35	PDX 20:34	12%	7%	4.4%	88%
AS 2081 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 15:52	PDX 16:50	12%	4%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON