Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 6401 MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 6240 MFR 13:28 → PHX 16:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6401 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	PHX 07:42	5%	3%	0.3%	94%
OO 6301 SkyWest	MFR 05:19	PHX 07:51	7%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 6253 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 13:23	PHX 15:51	13%	7%	0.2%	73%
OO 6240 SkyWest	MFR 13:28	PHX 16:10	14%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON