Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:41 am at Medford)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 3207 at 06:11, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3207 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 06:11	SAN 08:24	11%	4%	0.8%	89%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 53m	99%	75%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	2h 42m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 41m	97%	75%
United Details →	MFR 06:00 → SFO 07:24UA 717	51m San Francisco	SFO 08:15 → SAN 09:59UA 444	3h 59m	87%	70%
United Details →	MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m San Francisco	SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142	5h 56m	97%	69%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Phoenix	PHX 10:56 → SAN 12:30AA 1851	7h 15m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon	1h 18m Portland	PDX 07:32 → SAN 10:05AS 577	4h 50m	97%	67%
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → SAN 20:53UA 1343	6h 42m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533	6h 24m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon	48m Portland	PDX 17:38 → SAN 20:12AS 667	4h 20m	75%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON