Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:08 am at Medford); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: UA 5883 at 18:35, 31%.

Nonstops today


UA 5883 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 18:35	SFO 20:07	31%	15%	0.5%	53%
UA 1754 United Flight history →	MFR 14:11	SFO 15:35	32%	14%	0.2%	47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 17:24 → SEA 18:55DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	6h 35m	96%	69%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	2h 51m Denver	DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389	8h 10m	97%	65%
Delta Details →	MFR 12:20 → SEA 14:00DL 3878 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	7h 56m	100%	65%
Alaska Details →	MFR 12:30 → PDX 13:34AS 3300 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	4h 10m	91%	61%
American Details →	MFR 13:23 → PHX 15:51AA 6253 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Phoenix	PHX 17:25 → SFO 19:32AA 2421	6h 09m	96%	60%
Alaska Details →	MFR 13:27 → SEA 14:55AS 3087 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 18:36 → SFO 20:48AS 619	7h 21m	100%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	MFR 13:27 → SEA 14:55AS 3087 · flown by SkyWest	49m Seattle	SEA 15:44 → SFO 17:53AS 680	4h 26m	53%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON